Recipe for success

By David Ornstein
BBC Sport at Wimbledon Venue: All England Club, LondonDate: 20 June-3 JulyCoverage: Live on BBC One, Two, 3D, HD, Red Button, online (UK only), Radio 5 live, 5 live sports extra; live text commentary from 0900 BST on BBC Sport website (#bbctennis); watch again on iPlayer Djokovic too good for spirited Tsonga (UK only)

Novak Djokovic's progress to the Wimbledon final means he will become the new world number one when the next ATP rankings are released on Monday.

The 24-year-old's rise to the summit of men's tennis owes much to an incredible 43-match unbeaten streak, which spanned six months, seven tournaments and started in December last year.

It came to an end with defeat by Roger Federer at the French Open, but marked a remarkable turnaround for a player who struggled badly for much of 2010 - winning only two of 19 tournaments all season.

Djokovic's SW19 run has extended his 2011 win-loss record to 47-1 and he will hope to confirm his status as this year's leading player with victory over Rafael Nadal in Sunday's showpiece.

But what sparked the improvement and why is he so much better in 2011? BBC Sport spoke to Marian Vajda, a former world number 34 and the Serbian's coach since 2006.

HOW DO YOU REFLECT ON NOVAK'S WINNING SEQUENCE?

"Special, wonderful, amazing - there aren't enough superlatives to describe how this year has been for him, and for us as his team. It shows we're doing a good job and we should celebrate and admire what has happened. Since I started working with him in 2006 this has been his goal.

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We found he had a gluten allergy and since he's cut that out of his diet, he is able to breathe better and take in more oxygen. His body is much healthier and this is the key

Marian Vajda

"He found a way to play the guys, learned how to beat them, how to prepare properly, how to handle the pressure. It's a process. Before, he had lapses, nerves, we could see he often couldn't handle the pressure. Physically he was not good. Now, he's 24 years old, much stronger and his talent is coming to the surface.

"Unfortunately the loss to Federer ended his unbeaten run and stopped him from becoming world number one, so that was bitter and took away some mental strength. But my role as his coach was to get him to try to forget this defeat and prepare as well as possible for Wimbledon."

WHAT HAS HE DONE DIFFERENTLY TO MAKE SUCH A DRASTIC STEP UP?

"There was a tough period in his tennis career when, in 2009, he decided he wanted to switch to working with two coaches. Todd Martin came in, changed a couple of techniques and his serve was not working well.

Vajda (second from right) has worked with Djokovic since 2006

"At the start of 2010, he was in serious trouble. He managed to win a few matches and stay in the world's top three, but he had no serve. He had to get back to his old routines. In men's tennis, the serve is the number one issue. We worked hard and about 12 months ago he started to improve, but he was still far away from where he is now.

"You can see his serve is much better and he is so confident now that he tends to win the most important points - break points, match points etc. At the start of this year he began winning matches in straight sets, dropping very few games and even in the giant battles against Nadal and Federer he was able to dominate, which rarely happened in 2010."

WAS THERE ANYTHING ELSE YOU PAID SPECIAL ATTENTION TO?

"Yes, we also worked hard on the physical side. Novak needed to improve his endurance. He was not able to stay on the court for a long time. He would manage five sets but it would take a lot of energy away from him for the next match. Now he's able to maintain that because he's far better technically and physically.

"We did a lot of running and a bike work but, in addition, he improved his health. We found he had a gluten allergy and since he's cut that out of his diet, he is able to breathe better and take in more oxygen. His body is much healthier and this is the key.

"But most of all, when you have a good serve you shorten games and hold easily - and that makes you stronger mentally. There are still areas to work on - he can improve his approach to and position at the net - but he's getting better and better."

HOW PLEASED WERE YOU WITH HIS PREPARATION FOR WIMBLEDON?

"Novak recovered really well from Paris. He went straight to Monte Carlo to be with his girlfriend Jelena for a couple of days - to have some time off, relax, do different things that would take his mind completely away from tennis.

Final dream 'comes true' for Djokovic (UK only)

"He went to the beach, did some swimming, saw his family and helped Jelena ahead of her graduation for an economics diploma on Sunday 12 June. Then we came over and practised at Aorangi for the first time on Monday 13 June.

"From the moment he stepped on to the grass he looked unbelievable. He played two practice sets against Richard Gasquet at an incredibly high level, as if Wimbledon was only two days away.

"In his only pre-Wimbledon warm-up match, against Gilles Simon, it was scary how good he was. He was relaxed and looking happier on grass than ever before. That made me feel pretty confident.

"The Federer defeat was bitter but champions like Novak realise that it's no shame to lose matches like that and unbeaten runs have to come to an end. Emotionally it stayed with him for a while, but he's experienced enough to get over it and regain his focus. To become world number one was something we were all focused on achieving. We prepared in a very professional way. He was ready.

WHY IS THIS TOURNAMENT SO SPECIAL TO NOVAK?

"It's a tradition. As a young kid, everyone watches Wimbledon. When I was a young kid I remember when we didn't have that much sport on TV, but we always had Wimbledon.

"You want to reach for that trophy, you want to see it high above your shoulders. This is the most exciting moment of your career. You work for this. It's the biggest tournament in the world. The history, the tradition, the champions. It's unique."

DID YOU FEEL HE ARRIVED AT SW19 UNDER LESS PRESSURE?

"Yes, and I was really pleased about that. The unbeaten run coming to an end released him. This was the tournament for Andy Murray, for Federer, for Rafael Nadal. Rafa was defending champion and had to defend all his ranking points from last year.

"Novak recovered well and came here in good condition, but we knew the relative lack of pressure could help him go far. How far? We'll have to wait and see."

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Recipe for revolution

28 June 2011 Last updated at 14:34 GMT By Shashank Joshi Associate fellow, Royal United Services Institute Egypt's army initially tried to dislodge protesters, but eventually took their side against the president In the wave of dissent sweeping over the Arab world, an old lesson is being re-learnt: that armies are the key to unlocking a revolution's potential.

After the ignominious fall of Presidents Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, it was widely noted that these events disproved the 'Arab exception' - the belief, held in the face of mountains of contradictory evidence, that Arabs did not want democracy.

But the overwhelming focus on the "demand-side" of an uprising lost sight of something more important: that the "market for revolution" cannot clear if the army is both able and willing to use overwhelming force. In other words, armies control the "supply-side" of revolution.

History is replete with abortive awakenings, in which the supply constraint has choked off change: Europe 1848, Hungary 1956, Prague 1968, Beijing 1989, and - what may turn into the tragic footnote to the Arab Spring - Bahrain 2011. Syria could be appended to that list in short order.

Independent identity

This is about much more than raw coercive capacity. Both Iran's army in 1979 and Egypt's this year could have put up stiff resistance to the movements that swept away incumbent dictators. Why did they hold their fire?

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Armies that are little more than outgrowths of an autocratic regime know that they have no institutional future if protesters get their way”

End Quote The answer lies in civil-military dynamics. Armies that have their own identity, that possess a corporate existence separate from their political masters, often choose to manage political transition rather than simply squelch it. They see a future beyond the regime.

In Turkey, Pakistan, and now Egypt, the army has judged that it can enjoy its economic and political privileges by controlling the scope and direction of change.

In fact, outright repression would tarnish the invaluable national credentials each institution enjoys, largely as a result of its own myth-making and manipulation.

Egypt's army did try to dislodge the masses in Tahrir Square. But when it realised it could not do so without enormous bloodshed that would also wash away the institution's veneer, it shied away.

On the other hand, armies that are little more than outgrowths of an autocratic regime know that they have no institutional future if protesters get their way.

Servile armies A man briefly blocks the path of tanks following the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when hundreds were killed

In Syria, 70% of career soldiers and 80% of officers are drawn from the ruling minority Alawite clan. Those units employed in crackdowns and massacres, such as the Fourth Division controlled by President Bashar al-Assad's brother, are all-Alawite, as are key intelligence organisations and militias.

These armies - like Bahrain's security forces and Libya's elite brigades - may be disciplined and cohesive, but they are not professional. Since their fate is bound up with that of the regimes, they have little compunction in unleashing violence.

It is this distinction, between independent and servile armies, that is one of the most important parameters in determining the trajectory of an uprising.

An independent, professional army, no matter how powerful, will have appealing alternatives to bloodshed. That doesn't guarantee a democratic revolution - see the sorry paths of 1980s Turkey or 1990s Pakistan - but it does enable a change.

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With the understandable romanticisation of raw protest, we lose sight of the fact that massed crowds are but one ingredient of successful regime change”

End Quote Armies with a distinct corporate identity can produce dangerous Praetorian states - where the military exercises undue influence over the political regime - but they can also enable peaceful transitions.

For those armies that opt for violence, capacity does matter. The archetypal case remains Tiananmen Square. Even though 3,500 PLA officers disobeyed orders in 1989, this was only a fraction of the overall total used in the crackdown.

Sectarian armies

It helped that the PLA's 27th Army was at the forefront; this unit's troops were from northern Shaanxi Province, speaking a different dialect to the student protesters.

Bahrain learnt this lesson well, and spent years importing Sunni mercenaries from Pakistan. They have proved to be ready to fire on Shia protesters.

The Iraqi army, a mostly Sunni force, had similarly little compunction about brutally putting down the 1991 uprising in Shia and Kurdish parts of the country.

In Syria, the Assad regime cynically uses Christian and Druze troops against Sunni targets.

The UAE has gone a step further, reportedly hiring Blackwater founder Erik Prince to help establish an all-mercenary force of about 800 foreign fighters.

Ethnic difference matters.

Patchwork militias Syrian troops have deployed in several towns where protests have been held

Nonetheless, most armies do not enjoy the Tiananmen option. A weak army, or one where only select units are equipped and led by regime loyalists, will quickly disintegrate into patchwork militias.

In Libya, eastern units peeled away from Gaddafi at the outset of the conflict, sowing the seeds of a civil war. What could have been another Hama - the 1982 massacre perpetrated by an earlier incarnation of the Assad regime in Syria - became something much less simple.

All of this is not to neglect the demand-side of revolution. After all, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have all been largely quiet, and not just because of fear.

But with the understandable romanticisation of raw protest, we lose sight of the fact that massed crowds are but one ingredient of successful regime change.

For those peering into these restive states, this is a reminder that capacity-building in the absence of professionalisation simply produces more efficient slaughter.

Britain trained and equipped some of the Libyan special forces who inflicted such horrors on cities like Misrata. Western states continue to train Saudi forces, and this may well have much the same effect.

For those that find this improbable, consider that six months ago Bahrain was considered a humane and liberalising country whose parliamentary institutions obviated the need for a crackdown.

The more immediate lessons may be these: parts of Yemen's splintered forces have proven flexible enough to manoeuvre away from the Saleh regime, and might yet fall in line behind a transitional government that emerges.

Syria's sectarian army, on the other hand, will not go down without a fierce fight - one that they have an excellent chance of winning.

Shashank Joshi is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a defence think-tank in London, and a doctoral student of international relations at Harvard University.

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