Truth or stability

1 July 2011 Last updated at 10:27 GMT By Owen Bennett-Jones BBC News, Beirut The UN-backed tribunal has been losing the media war over its investigation By handing over an indictment and four arrest warrants to the authorities in Beirut, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon has started a legal process that is likely to run for several years.

The tribunal is investigating the death in 2005 of the former Lebanese Prime Minister and multi-billionaire Rafik Hariri. His assassination caused such outrage in Lebanon it led to mass protests and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country.

Amidst fevered speculation as to the identity of the accused, most observers agree on one thing: at least some, and maybe all of them, are from the Shia militant organisation Hezbollah. Hezbollah has vehemently denied involvement.

Last year the Canadian broadcaster CBC reported that the international investigators had found mobile phone evidence suggesting that Hezbollah activists had planned the assassination over a period of several months.

Continue reading the main story February 2005: Rafik Hariri is killed in a bombing in BeirutApril 2005: Syrian troops leave Lebanon after 29 years amid international pressure, despite Damascus denying any role in the killingJune 2007: UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) createdApril 2009: The STL orders the release of four Lebanese generals detained in 2005October 2010: Hezbollah urges all Lebanese to boycott the UN inquiry January 2011: Hezbollah forces collapse of government led by Saad Hariri, Rafik Hariri's- son, after he refuses to stop co-operating with the tribunalPeople who have worked on the enquiry say that although the group who murdered Mr Hariri took precautions, they did not appreciate the sophistication of software that enables investigators to reach conclusions about out exactly where phones have been even when they are switched off for most of the time.

Media war

Now the names have been handed over, Lebanon is obliged to arrest and detain the suspects within 30 working days. Since Hezbollah is a strong force in the new Lebanese government, few expect that to happen, in which case the suspects could eventually be tried in absentia.

The performance of the tribunal - and the international investigation that preceded its establishment - has been the subject of an intense media war.

Critics argue that an international investigation was only set up because at the time, Syria was the main suspect. They maintain that had Israel been suspected it's extremely unlikely any enquiry would have been established.

The investigation's credibility was also severely undermined when the initial enquiries led to the arrest of four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals who were detained for four years and then released without charge.

Justice of stability

Aware that it has been losing the media war, the tribunal has been employing an increasing number of spokesmen and press advisers to try to advance its case.

While many Lebanese still want to know who killed Rafik Hariri, others have begun to doubt the truth will ever come out. And they fear that if it did then the country's stability could be threatened.

But the tribunal is enshrined in international law and even if the Lebanese government withdraws its funding and tries in other ways to distance itself from the process, the hearings will carry on.

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Buying stability

27 May 2011 Last updated at 06:37 GMT By Jon Donnison BBC News, Ramallah Palestinian police officers make a fake arrest as part of a training exercise in Ramallah On the outskirts of Ramallah, sirens blare over the crackle of police radios as Palestinian officers surround a car and make an arrest.

"I've done nothing wrong," pleads the young offender, in a suspiciously hammed up fashion, as he is handcuffed and patted down.

As he is bundled into the back of a police car, the would-be criminal flashes me a wink and a toothy smile.

This is a training exercise.

"I used to be an actor," he laughs, "before I joined the police."

These are Palestinian police receiving training by officers from the European Union.

The project was originally set up five years ago by the British government and has since been taken over by the EU.

"We have officers from a lot of member states here providing expertise," says Chris Machell, who served with Northumbria police in the UK for 30 years before beginning a retirement of sorts on the West Bank.

"We're making some progress. The Palestinian police are becoming a much more professional organisation."

Huge amounts of aid

The project, with an annual budget running into tens of millions of dollars, is one of hundreds aimed at supporting the Palestinian National Authority.

Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza receive more foreign aid per head of population than any other group of people in the world. According to research done by The Economist magazine, in 2008 it amounted to $675 (?414) per person, per year. A good amount of that money comes from the European Union.

"The EU contributes around 500m euros a year, with roughly the same amount coming from individual member states," says Christian Berger, the EU representative to the Palestinian territories.

Some observers have called it buying economic peace.

And the vast injections of foreign money have seen the Palestinian economy grow. According to the International Monetary Fund, in the West Bank it grew by over 9% in 2010.

The removal or relaxation of some Israeli military checkpoints in the West Bank has also made it easier for Palestinians to do business.

Aid-dependent economy

In Ramallah, some of that growth can be seen.

The West Bank's boomtown, with its government ministries and large international population, is by no means typical, but it has been transformed in the last five years.

Scores of new buildings have gone up, and numerous cafes, restaurants and bars have opened.

Jasmine is one of the latest places to open its doors. Sitting on its terrace, you find yourself amid a young, affluent-looking crowd.

A line of 4x4 jeeps is parked outside. You pay almost $5 (?3) for a large cappuccino here.

Most Palestinians cannot afford to come here. The United Nations estimates that 25% of Palestinians live below the poverty line.

But there is clearly a minority of people in Ramallah with money, and much of it can probably be traced back to foreign aid.

"Over the last 15 years, 50% of the Palestinian Authority budget has come from foreign aid," says Nasser Abdul Karim, an economist at the West Bank's Bir Zeit University.

"But it's charity and the growth is unsustainable," he says wryly.

So what would happen if the funding stopped?

"Salaries would not be paid. Employees would stop spending. People could not pay rent or bank loans or electricity bills," says Mr Abdul Karim.

"The domino effect would play a major role in crippling the whole economy."

Hamas question

And yet that scenario is a possibility.

Palestinians have celebrated the recent unity deal between Fatah and Hamas

This month, Palestinians were out on the streets to celebrate the unity deal between Fatah and Hamas, to try to end four years of bitter division between the two main political factions.

The secular Fatah party is considered by many in the West as moderate.

Not so the Islamist movement Hamas, which the European Union and the United States regard as a terrorist organisation.

Last time Hamas were in the government, having won parliamentary elections in 2006, the big donors pulled Palestinian funding.

Tens of thousands of people went without salaries for six months.

Some politicians in the US congress are already calling for American aid to stop now that Hamas is back in the frame.

But what about the European Union, the Palestinian Authority's biggest donor?

"At the moment, we're not talking about Hamas joining a government," says Mr Berger, pointing to the fact the unity deal aims to initially set up an interim government made up of independent politicians.

"After that, there will be elections in a year's time. We're going to concentrate on what's happening now - not in a year's time," he says.

In other words, he does not feel the EU have to make a decision yet.

Fragile stability

But the fact that so much money might be riding on whether the Hamas-Fatah unity deal works is one pressure that could see it fail.

"It would be wrong to stop funding us because of Hamas," says Ali Jarbawi, an independent politician and planning minister in the West Bank who has worked closely with the European Union.

"You cannot have your cake and eat it too. For the last two years, the world at large has been calling for Palestinian political unity. Now when we achieve it, they come and tell you, 'We cannot deal with you because of this reunification'."

Mr Jarbawi says the international community needs to make up its mind on what it wants.

During the past few weeks, I have heard a range of words used to describe the scenario if foreign aid were to be cut - from "stagnation" to "collapse" to "explosion".

Economist Nassir Abdul Karim feels the consequences would be so bad and so much has been invested that such a scenario would not be allowed to happen.

"The donors are not stupid," he says.

Others think that if the big foreign donors did decide to officially cut funding, they would find less transparent channels to keep the money coming, possibly by funnelling it through aid agencies and NGOs.

Nevertheless, many Palestinians who earn a living, either directly or indirectly, through foreign aid recognise that the relative stability achieved in recent years is fragile.

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